Saturday, March 20, 2010

March Madness: 64 to 32 and Saturday's 2nd Round Picks

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

Thursday was propelled by thrilling OT games, bracket busters, and enthralling upsets. That's why I love March Madness and spend twelve straight hours on my couch clutching my bong, watching two laptops and a TV, and screaming obscenities whenever CBS airs a commercial. I live for this time of year.

Friday's tame action was a bit boring side save the occasional pocket of excitement. I had a hunch that normalcy will return and that the majority of favorites would win/cover. I avoided any significant action with a couple of medium-sized bets on Purdue and Pitt. The pundits were not so high on either team which in turn affected the betting lines making both teams very attractive to my new system.

You want a free betting tip? Know which talking head on TV is full of shit and fade their picks. Doesn't matter if it is European Premier League soccer, the NFL, or March Madness. Understand the power of the lowest common denominator. Most TV viewers are degenerate bettors, broke dick punters, and other brainwashed yokels believe everything they hear and see on TV. That means you have to go against the grain and bet the opposite way in order to find tremendous value. That's the toughest thing to do in life -- to run one way when everyone else is running the opposite way. However, if you have the courage and perseverance to do so and pick the right spot (timing is everything), then you'll find that you're the only one running towards the money.

One of those slick-haired morons at CBS continuously boasted about how he calling the Siena upset over Purdue. This started the moment that the brackets were released and he kept hammering home that fact all week, and day on Thursday, and once again during the pre-game shows on Friday. I wondered if the goombas and bookies were paying him off to project that disinformation or if he generally believed in his own paltry research. Guess what? I won more money fading his pick than the total cost of the ugly suits in his closet.

Sure Purdue played like shit in the Big Ten championship, but Siena is vastly overrated. I saw -4.5 as a steal and only wish that I had the balls to bet Purdue bigger. Same goes for Pitt. I should have picked either of those as a big bet, but wanted to play it safe for the opening round. Bottom line: Purdue and Pitt were simply better on paper than their opponents. Pitt should have been a 20 point favorite over Oakland and Purdue closer to double digits.

I was bouncing off the walls on a natural high when #5 seed Texas A&M knocked off #12 Utah State. The bookies (both local, offshore, and in Vegas) cleaned up on those trendoids hung up on pounding #12 seeds. If you did that this year, you only won one game outright while only two beat the spread. That's why I bet against #12 seeds and correctly picked the right #12 to win. Cornell had a legit shot of keeping the game close against Temple (which is why they were the only dog I picked on Friday). Shit, luckily I didn't even have to sweat the Cornell/Temple game because Cornell seized control very early with sensational shooting and they dictated the tempo of the game. Happy that those Ivy leaguers won. I have a bunch of friends who were alums and it was fun sweating the game via Twitter with those geeks.

My Friday chalk parlay was a cake walk -- top seeds with favorable matchups. When I hit "confirm bet" I realized that I put in a Big East parlay. Look, everyone knew those teams were gonna win (Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia) but by how much was the real question. The bookies set conservative lines which was why those games stuck out to me. Luckily all of them covered and I didn't have to sweat any of them. Cake walk. If life.gambling were always so easy.

I finished a perfect Friday. I can't recall the last time (or any time) that had happened during the opening round. I finished an outstanding 13-1 over two days and nailed 3-team parlays on consecutive days. I think that's a sign of the apocalypse or something, right. I expect the streets of Beverly Hills to be covered in locusts and a river of blood running down Olympic Blvd. Ah, beware the peculiar happenings of sports betting. Heck, on Friday morning, someone who was heading to kindergarten was leading my pool. Ah, the beauty and magic of March Madness.

OK, the only reason you are tuning in today is that you heard I was on a heater and you're curious to see if my run can continue or if variance will catch up to me. That's why I'm super gun shy to post my picks! But I'll do you the service anyway, even though I could probably sell this info at $50 a pick.

Here's my half-baked assessment of today's games...
#10 St. Mary's vs #2 Villanova - Nova had a scare in the first round, sort of when your girlfriend says she thinks she's pregnant and you do three or four home tests and three of them are ambiguous but the fourth says she's knocked up so she sets an appointment with her doctor and you get super lucky because her friend Flo shows up the next morning. Anyway, St. Mary's were my darlings in the first round. They are rebounding machines, but I dunno if they have the firepower to keep up with Nova. On the majority of my sheets I picked Villanova going very deep. I'm not betting this game, but I have a feeling Nova will not cover.

#13 Murray State vs #5 Butler - Murray State's run was over before the left the court on Thursday. They should be back home right now if it weren't for last second heroics from Danero Thomas. I have a hard on for Butler, so they should easily prevail as long as they shut down Murray's top two big dogs, Isaac Miles and B.J. Jenkins (who scored almost 50% of their offense on Thursday). On my sheets, I picked Butler to beat Vandy. Without a doubt, Butler is my Big Bet of the day.

#14 Ohio vs #6 Tennessee - I'm not a fan of Tennessee which is why I bet San Diego State in the opening game. Tenn won and didn't cover which bodes well for me in this game. I'm sticking with my gut (Tenn won't cover) and riding a sizzling team (Ohio). I picked Georgetown to go deep on a lot of my sheets with every one of them beating Tenn in this game. I'm jumping on the Ohio bandwagon and betting them small.

#9 Northern Iowa vs #1 Kansas - Alas yet again, I abandon my opening round darlings against a top seed. I jizzed all over UNI on Thursday and had a near heart attack when they played sloppy and turned the ball over against UNLV. They bailed themselves out and they hit all their FTs down the stretch which is why I won my bet and UNI advanced. Kansas is just taking another step towards the championship and will beat UNI. On my sheets, I have Kansas winning this game. For some reason, I'm gun shy about Kansas sleep walking through this game, so I'm not betting it.

#11 UW vs #3 New Mexico - UW should have beaten Marquette by ten points, but it took a last second shot to seal the win. New Mexico struggled against the Grizzlies of Montana but head coach Steve Alford made a key adjustment in the second half which aided their opening round victory. UW is the favorite and I can't recall the last time a #11 seed was a favorite against a #3! This seems like a trap game. New Mexico's best player, Darington Hobson has a wrist injury -- but everyone is hurting at this time of the season and he's playing through it. New Mexico opened as +1.5 dog and the line since moved to +2.5. I have New Mexico on all of my sheets and I have a small bet on them. Update: When Butler lost, I bet New Mexico's moneyline. Three small bets now equal a medium-sized sweat.

#11 Old Dominion vs #3 Baylor - Sticking with Baylor even though they were the only wrong pick I made so far. ODU beat up on a struggling Notre Dame squad but they can't keep up with Baylor. On my sheets, I have Baylor. I'm not giving up on them just yet and bet them small.

#7 BYU vs #2 Kansas State - BYU blew a 13 point lead late in the game against Florida, and it took them two OTs to win. At least those Mormons covered the spread for me! Too bad BYU won't be in the tourney for too much longer. Kansas State is on a mission and they're gonna eat up BYU's big men. I picked Kansas State on my sheets and they are one of my medium bets of the day.

#9 Wake Forest vs #1 Kentucky - Wake won a coinflip and that's why they are up against a young but tough Kentucky squad. Kentucky wins, that much we know. But by how much? Hard to tell which is why I didn't bet this game. I have Kentucky on my sheets.
OK, that's it for now. Good luck today. If you are feeling saucy and want to bet on the games, you can open up an account at


  1. Miami Don3:34 PM

    That was a helluva first two days Pauly. Keep picking the winners and yes, you will have a tout service for all of the degens. Continued success bro. 

  2. Pauly4:35 PM

    Who did you like today?

  3. Pauly8:16 PM

    I suck.

  4. That was an effing bloodbath.  Sometimes, even your best horse needs a rest. 

    I'm back on you today, though, hoss...too much fun to be had with the gamble not to.