Sunday, July 11, 2004

Fantasy Pauly: The Answer

My favorite pair of Queens

When we last left, this was the situation:
You're Dr. Pauly in the little blind and you see your favorite hand, the Hilton Sisters. Mr. X raises under the gun doubling the big blind. You re-raised to 8x BB and Mr. X just calls. The flop is (Jh 6d 7d). You bet the pot (1/3 of your stack) and Mr. X (his stack is 2x your stack) comes over the top and pushes his stack all-in. You're Dr. Pauly, what do you do?
Thanks for everyone's comments and suggestions. Here's what was going on inside my head.

Preflop: The fact that he bet small UTG, then just called my raise was a concern. Was he slowplaying a KK or AA or did I have a better hand than him preflop?

The flop: If he was slowplaying AA or KK, I was fucked. If he had JJ, a hand I possibly put him on, then I was really screwed if he hit his set on the flop. I had to try to figure out what he put me on... did he think I had AKd? And he didn't want his set of Jacks cracked by me ctaching a fifth diamond. Did he put me on a high pair and have AKd and was on a draw, but wanted to try to semi-bluff-steal the pot on the flop by moving all-in? Or did he have AJd? With top pair on the flop... he had a chance to improve his hand with a nut flush draw.

The time was running out and I had to make a decision quickly. In a tournament at Foxwoods or at a WSoP satellite, I have to give the player a lot more respect and assume he's got a higher pair or the set of Jacks. I would have folded in those sitiations.

But folks, I was playing on Party Poker... so I took a deep breath and called. I moved all-in. If he had a hand it was AKd or AJd and he was on a draw. If he didn't have a hand... something I kind of suspected (why else would I have called?) I put him on a smaller pair (like 99 or something ridiculous like KQs). I'm glad I called. I was gambling that the guy had learned the vast majority of his poker knowledge from TV shows like Celebrity Poker Letdown and the WPT, instead of books authored by the likes of Sklansky, Brunson, and CLoutier.

The guy turned over: Jh-9h.

No flush draw. All he had was top pair! My Hilton Sisters was enough to win, and I doubled up against the guy. A few other players were happy I made the call. Mr. X was dubbed the table maniac, and after a rebuy, over the next hour of play he pushed his stack all-in more times than he should have. Typical Party Poker idiot... pushing his stack all-in on top pair when I reraised him preflop. I guess he never bothered to put me on a hand, or figured he could bully me around. It almost worked, because I nearly folded.

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