Thursday, March 24, 2011

March Madness Picks: 2011 Sweet 16 - Thursday

By Pauly
New York City

I survived the opening week of March Madness with my bankroll still in tact, but it only grew a small amount. Let's hope that trend changes over the next few days. At the least, I finished off Sunday with a small profit betting the dogs, VCU and Marquette. The damn Heels missed a push by 1 and an outright cover by 2 points. Hit your fucking free throws, UNC!

The most difficult aspect of the Sweet 16 games is controlling your impulse to bet on every game. Unfortunately, I crave action and have zero semblance of control, which is why it'll be impossible for me to avoid betting on every game for the rest of the tournament. Alas, to preserve my bankroll, I varied the betting amounts depending on the matchups. For example, on Thursday I'll have one big bet and three small ones.


So let's get down to it...


- San Diego State +1. I bet SDSU on Sunday night because I had a hunch that they wouldn't be a dog (albeit a minimal dog) for too long. By Thursday at noon Vegas time, the line has settled on -1. SDSU bandwaggoners love the fact the game is in Anaheim, because it will be almost like a home game for the Aztecs. I don't necessarily agree. UCONN is a team that can handle hostile crowds very well. In the end, I'm going with my gut that the entire Big East was overrated this season and hope SDSU doesn't fall into an offensive lapse in the middle of the 2nd half, which should have been their downfall in their last game.

- Florida -2. I keep trying to convince myself that BYU is the better team and I should bet on them. They have one of the best players in the country in Jimmer, but none of those arguments are convincing enough. I got a gut feeling that the Mormons run is over tonight, so stick with the Gators.

- Butler +4.5. When will Butler's run end? Or are they just getting warmed up? Over the last two years, Butler plays extremely close games in the tournament. Even if they lose, it's going to be a squeaker, so getting 4+ points is a no-brainer.

- Arizona +9. I can't bet on Duke. Just hope the Cats keep in close in the first half and hit their FTs down the stretch.

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood Country Club and in most parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it for now.

Instead of live blogging the minutiae of my Sweet 16 sports betting, you can follow my progress on Twitter via @taopauly for live March Madness updates. Regular poker programming will resume on Monday.

2 comments:

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