Sunday, March 18, 2007

March Madness Round 2 Sunday Picks

By Pauly

I hate writing about bad beats in poker, but I won't refrain from mentioning two that I took yesterday in sports betting. That meaningless basket at the end of the OSU-XU game killed me. OSU rallied back and was up by 9... in overtime! Yet, they didn't play defense on the last play of the game and I lost by one point. Unreal. And I pushed in the Texas A&M game. That's never fun. Plus two of my teams blew big leads late in the second half. They came back to win, but failed to cover as I ended the day 3-3-1. I'm still up overall at 20-8-3, but that OSU-XU debacle had me on tilt the rest of the afternoon and evening.

Anyway, the second round games on Saturday were some of the most exciting I had seen this year. Three OT games? One double-OT game? The suits at CBS must have been jizzing in their pants.

I also developed a new found respect for two freshman guards. Mike Conley from OSU went to high school with Greg Oden. He hit several big shots including the first seven points in overtime. He's been overshadowed by his friend and teammate, but the kid can flat out play. Then there's Edgar Sosa from New York City. Rick Pitino snagged him up and he's an amazing catch for Louisville. The kid lit up Texas A&M and showed no fear. He missed a couple of clutch free throws and a shot to win the game, but aside from that, the kid played nearly flawless. I must say that I'll be keeping an eye on both Conley and Sosa. Those kids can shoot the rock and can drive to the hole.

Here are the betting lines courtesy of BoDog as of 8:30am ET:
12:10p Tennessee -3 Virginia
2:15p Purdue +12 Florida
2:30p UNLV +5.5 Wisconsin
2:40p Virginia Tech +1.5 Southern Illinois
2:50p Winthrop +4 Oregon
4:45p Nevada +5.5 Memphis
5:00p Kentucky +8 Kansas
5:15p USC +3 Texas

Here are 7 games that I'll be betting on today:
Tennessee -3
Florida -12
Wisconsin -5.5
Winthrop +4
Memphis -5.5
Kansas -8
Texas -3
Another tough day. In the first round, the favorites prevailed. Yesterday, it seemed like the underdogs were hot going 6-1-1 for the day. I should go with that trend, but my gut is telling me otherwise. I was going to skip the Florida game, which means they'll win and cover, so I decided to pick them afterall.

Can Winthrop head to the Sweet 16? They are the highest seed still playing. They are 13-4 on the road this year and you gotta love their best player Craig Bradshaw, who is a Kiwi and has played for New Zealand's Olympic and national teams. He dropped 24 against Notre Dame and needs to come up big for tiny Winthrop. Besides, Oregon fucked me on Friday when I but the Ducks and they failed to cover.

UNLV is having their best season in years, but their run is going to end. They'll have a tough time with Wisconsin, who finally got their shit together late in the first round game. High scoring Tennessee is going to outgun UVA. I have a tough time betting against the Salukis from S. Illinois, even with them playing the erractic Hokies of Va. Tech. That's a game I should probably avoid and at the last minute, I decided not to give that game any action.

That 5.5 spread in the Memphis-Nevada game looks like a trap game to me. Memphis should win by ten, but why is the spread so low? Because they can't shoot free throws. Usually I avoid betting on teams with poor FT shooting percentages. Not this time. Let's hope they hit enough to cover.

I'm going with Kevin Durrant and Texas over USC. The Trojans had an easy game in round 1 but they are going to have their hands full with Durrant.

Bill Self should have his #1 seeded Kansas Jawhawks ready to whoop on Kentucky. They score more points, play better defense, and have a better record on the road. Kentucky is a better FT shooting team but that won't be enough to win.

I have a bad feeling about today. You might want to fade a few of my picks. You have been warned.

* * * * * Random Live Updates * * * * *

11:52am... Pauly's Pub March Madness Update: Through Day 3, JoeSpeaker is in first place with 430 points with Senor not far behind in second. One of my sheets is tied for 5th. Everyone's favorite Hollyweird blonde is tied for 3rd.
1 Backdoor Inuits (JoeSpeaker) 430
2 Stimulation (Senor) 420
3 Capt. Tom and the P.O.B.s (Change100) 410
3 warren coolidge all-stars (Hector31) 410
12:50pm... It was the J.R. Reynolds show as he took control of the game. UVA snagged the lead with 8 minutes to go in the first half as Reynolds scored 22 of UVA's first 32 points. Tennessee struggled fron 3 point range and picked up a few ticky-tack fouls. They were up 7 early on before Reynolds schooled them and UVA umped out to a 9 point lead with 5 minutes left.

1:10pm... UVA had an 11 point lead, but Tenn came back and outscored them 10-2 in the last four minutes. Tenn trails 38-35 at the half. They can score a lot in a small amount of time, but they need to shut down J.R. Reynolds who is playing out of his tits.

1:45pm... With Wayne Chism on the bench with four fouls, Tenn tied it up with 16 minutes to go. They opened up a 10 point lead after a couple of treys from Ryan Childress and a few buckets from JaJuan Smith.

2:37pm... With 2:30 to go JaJuan Smith nailed a three-pointer to put Tenn up by 5. Sean Singletary nearly killed me when he hit a three to make the score 73-72, as he scored seven straight points for UVA with 0:13 to go. Tenn's Chris Lofton hit six clutch FTs in the last thirty seconds to help me push my bet as Tenn won 77-74. The day starts with a non-loss. 0-0-1.

3:07pm... Florida chipped away at Purdue's big lead and tied it up with 1:22 to go. At halftime Purdue is up 31-29 after an unimpressive and flat performance from Florida. My buddy JW sent me a text, "I'm gonna play Florida big in the second half." Man, I hope they get their shit together.

3:21pm... The Badgers can't score in the first half. That much is obvious after watching them for the second time in three days. Unless they start knocking down some shots, I'm toast. UNLV up by 12 at the half.

4:18pm.... Wisconsin stormed back to take a five point lead after UNLV blew a 15 point lead. Florida should win their game, but they were up 9 and then played Swiss Cheese defense and let Purdue hit a three. Covering would be a miracle for both teams.

4:27pm... Florida won by 7 but didn't cover. I slipped to 0-1-1 for the day. I originally didn't ant to bet Florida and got gun shy with the S. Illinois game, so I took the Gators instead. I blew it and should have stuck with the gut.

4:40pm... UNLV upset #2 Wisconsin 74-68. They didn't play like a #2 seed. UNLV advances to the Sweet 16. Another bad pick on my end. 0-2-1 for the day. Ugliness. Dogs are 2-0-1 so far.

5:03pm... If you faded my picks, you'd be 3-0-1 right now. Winthrop got thumped like a cheap hooker. How come when I bet on Oregon on Friday, they didn't cover? Bastards. I slipped to 0-3-1 for the day. I need to go perfect for the rest of the day to save any sort of dignity. Thank God I decreased my bet sizes on Sunday due to the utter lack of confidence in my picks. I have all favorites in the last three games; Kansas, Memphis, and Texas. Time for my luck to change.

6:06pm... All three games are at the half. Kansas, Memphis, and USC all have small leads.

6:45pm... With five minutes to go, Memphis is up by 4. Texas is getting their arses whooped by USC. Kansas opened up a 14 point lead as UK's offense went dry.

7:07pm... Memphis led Nevada 64-62 with 6:17 remaining. That would be the last time Nevada scored as Memphis shut them down and won 78-62. Finally! My first win of the day. 1-3-1.

7:27pm... #1 Kansas rolled against Kentucky with a 12 point victory. Hey, a team I picked actually covered! 2-3-1 for the day.

7:35pm... It's official. USC upended Texas as the Trojans advance to the Sweet 16. That was one of the few games I actually had confidence in. Oh well. Kevin Durrant dropped 30 in what might be his last game in college before he jumps to the NBA. 2-4-1 to finish the anemic day. My first losing day in four tough days of betting. 22-12-4 overall for the first two rounds. I'm down for the day, but still ahead.

9:27pm... Pauly's Pub March Madness Pool Update: At the end of Round 2, Hector31 is the unofficial co-leader with Sweet Sweet Gracie.
Top 6:
1 warren coolidge all-stars (Hector51) 510
1 Logan's Run (Gracie) 510
3 Ladies Love Mean Gene 2 (Mean Gene) 500
3 Meat Me in the Urinal (Daddy) 500
3 Stimulation (Senor) 500
3 Paboo's Phighting Phalli (Pabbo) 500

Original content written and provided by Pauly from Tao of Poker. All rights reserved. RSS feeds are for non-commercial use only.

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